What’s In The Crystal Ball For 2005?

January 31, 2005

by Stevie Edwards

Trends as noted by forecasters

Every year is characterised by trends that shape the world around us. Some leading forecasters have shared their views about the forthcoming year with MR Business.

Chris Middleton is the managing director of Sociovision, which has been tracking trends for 50 years. “We look at fundamental change, taking a very long range look at what is happening in society. We are trying to understand the deep-rooted value changes that are the tides that determine the future, rather than examining the waves and ripples,” he says.

He cites the emergence of a number of social phenomena and groups:

Crude Hedonism: the growing attraction to violence, binge drinking, ladettes

Making Magic: increasing numbers of people seeking enchantment in their everyday lives – little treats and indulgences with a “magic” twist. The phenomenon also accounts for the popularity of Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings.

Respectable Rebels: a category of outwardly conventional people who, for example, download illegally with a Marxist-like belief that others (eg Microsoft) have no right to ownership of technology/ideas.

Light Lifers: well-networked people who weave their way through life finding possessions a millstone. Their strategy is to borrow or to access stuff on a temporary basis, not amassing long term possessions.

As a result of these emerging social categories Chris believes that the retail sector is in peril. “Retailers haven’t kept abreast of these social changes. The music industry has already been clobbered and other sectors must brace themselves for similar trouble,” he says.

Another phenomenon he cites is the changing market for brands. “It used to be the monied upper classes that underpinned the leading brands. Now it is people at the lower end of the economic spectrum that are chasing brands. This is reflected in re-branding that is more lewd and crude. Take for example the travel brands – they’ve gone decidedly downmarket,” he notes.

The message from Sociovision is that brands are being challenged because the people they originally hoped to appeal to are increasingly “not buying”.

Tamar Kasriel, Head of Knowledge Venturing at the Henley Centre also considers brands to be under threat, not least because consumers are much more prone to vote with their feet. “Brits may not yet be vocal complainers, but they know how to switch suppliers and are increasingly doing so,” she explains.

She believes that the obesity issue is set to and run, not just at government level but for fmcgs and food companies which have been wrong-footed by the explosion of interest. Additionally, the “grey” issue is also hot, but the key to cracking the grey markets is better segmentation.

She also thinks there are powerful trends around wellbeing and the pursuit of happiness. “Part of the success of Nokia was understanding that the mobile community is more about “community” than “mobile”, according to the Henley Centre website.

“In the context of “wellbeing” there are trends toward people being willing to change their routines and do things to make themselves feel better. They are striving for a more satisfying and fulfilling life,” says Tamar. She thinks understanding why consumers are unsatisfied and helping them bridge the gap could be one of the biggest opportunities of the 21st century.

The Future Foundation took a more prosaic look at the future. Managing Director, Christophe Juan envisions some degree of house price recovery (linked to the general election) and a lessening focus on terrorism, together with a consonant erosion of trust in the government as people wake up to the fact that they have been victims of scaremongering. “ Not just scaremongering about terrorism but also on issues as diverse as immigration and binge-drinking,” says Christophe.

His other “trends” to watch are the phenomena of SPAM on the internet and its impact on the Direct Marketing industry and the potential explosion in the market for Personal Video Recorders, which could be the death knell for recordable DVDs. “They’ve been superceded by technology,” he says.

Finally, Reinier Evers of Trendwatching.com expects the following trends to continue to make waves in 2005:

- Generation C (Consumers becoming creatives, producers etc)

- Ready To Know (the ever growing need for information about EVERYTHING, fuelled by the Google phenomenon)

- Life Caching (the need and now ability to store and share every aspect of one’s life)

- Masters of the YOUniverse (extreme individualisation, further encouraged by the emergence of the Gamer Generation: after all, gaming IS the new entertainment, and the only star in games is YOU!

 

 

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