Welcome to the second issue of the TRENDWATCHING.COM newsletter!
Our previous
issue attracted subscribers from Iceland to Taiwan, making this
a truly global affair.
We will continue to scan the globe for consumer trends and related
new business opportunities. None of the ‘chihuahuas are the
pets of choice for 2004’, but broad developments applicable
to many business disciplines. If you like what you read, please
forward this issue to your friends and co-workers, or send your
comments to info@trendwatching.com.
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Confronted with growing media pressure on children to expect
(if not demand) continuous consumption*, and the potential
means necessary to actually fulfill their children’s
material wishes, well-off parents will increasingly establish
an AFTER SPOILING DATE:
that moment in time at which they will start donating money,
assets and/or luxury goods to children, without fear of
spoiling their offspring too much. Ideally occurs when young
adults have shown to be responsible and down-to-earth individuals,
and therefore should be able to handle a bigger share of
the ever-increasing wealth of their parents.
By appealing to the AFTER
SPOILING DATE of children instead of concentrating
their energy on turning even toddlers into professional
consumers, marketers may succeed in deferring certain purchases
where they would otherwise lose the purchase all together
due to parents' unease. Savvy marketers will work with (instead
of against) parents on giving the green light for certain
purchases, explaining how the purchase does NOT stand in
the way of responsible parenthood. From banks to car manufacturers,
many business sectors could benefit from anticipating this
trend. >>
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* US teenagers ages twelve to nineteen spent $172
billion in 2001 (an average of $104 per teen per week),
up 11 percent from $155 billion in 2000. German teens had
even more to spend (Teen Research Unlimited, 2002).
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As witnessed by the turbulent,
yet unstoppable spread of capitalism around the world, many
in the newly capitalist areas are anxious to gain access to
goods enjoyed by their privileged ‘first world’
cousins. This material desire combined with modest purchasing
power has spawned GLOBAL GARAGE
SALES: rich countries selling off excess,
second-hand goods to newly capitalist neighbours.
Poland is a good example: in 1991, immediately after shedding
its communist past, Poles bought more than 300,000 used cars
in nearby Western European countries (source: Warsaw Voice).
Most of the cars were more than 10 years old, often damaged
and recycled from accidents. Another popular practice was
importing Western European vehicles in parts.
How long will such GLOBAL GARAGE
SALES last? Well, 10 years later, in 2001,
Poland came seventh in Europe in new car sales, ahead of more
affluent countries such as Switzerland, Sweden and Belgium.
And with Poland likely to join the EU in 2004, Poles may soon
be holding their own garage sales for nearby Ukrainians, Bulgarians
and Romanians looking for affordable Western goods.
Opportunities exist everywhere: China, Mexico, and second
phase EU-hopefuls are more than likely to be happy garage
sale shoppers for cars, electronics, furniture, CDs, toys...
Until they start hosting their own sales in 5 to 10 years
time. >>
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Also see RESORT REBIRTH below.
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Aging, wealthy baby boomers
from cold and Northern climates will increasingly want to
spend large parts of their working/non-working lives in warmer
regions, longing for an abundance of sun, comfort and companionship.
In the US, Florida has long established itself as such a region
for America’s senior citizens. Now it is Southern Europe’s
turn to accommodate hundreds of thousands of soon to be retired
citizens from Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Holland, Germany,
Belgium, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and Austria.
The European Union’s rapid financial and legal integration,
a massive increase in prosperity and comfort levels in Spain
and Portugal, and ever expanding transportation (Easy Jet!)
and communication links have spurred the FLORIDASATION
of the sunny regions of the EU.
Vast opportunities still exist in real-estate in Spain and
Portugal. Europe's next silver haired crowd will be richer,
more sophisticated and above all more demanding when it comes
to housing in Europe’s Florida. Child-friendly guest
rooms and entertainment sections score high, in hope of frequent
visits from children and grandchildren. Costa Brave-like sky
scrapers are a no-go. Ditto for slick, gold-chained real estate
agents.
However, FLORIDASATION
reaches well beyond real estate. There'll be an endless need
for insurance and tax specialists, health care centers, cheap
airlines, car dealers, decorators, language and art teachers,
childcare centers, gardeners, cleaners, security systems,
easy online access systems, etc. A venture that can organise
ALL of the above, from accommodation to arranging the purchase
of a tax-friendly car, will be the ultimate winner. A ticket
to Florida to study local success stories sounds like a sensible
investment. ;-) >>
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Possibly next: Tropical South East Asian regions catering
to senior Japanese and Taiwanese citizens; and Australia’s East and West
Coast catering to the more ‘global’ senior citizens who really want
to get away from it all.
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As unfair as it may seem, the world counts a growing number
of individuals who couldn’t care less about a 0.2%
drop in economic growth or even a full- blown recession.
According to a June 2002 Merrill Lynch/Cap Gemini report,
more than 7,000,000 people worldwide possess investable
assets of at least US$1 million. Excluding real estate,
thank you very much. The assets of THE
NON-CYCLICAL RICH grew by 3% last year,
which, by the way, was the smallest(!) increase since 1997.
The opportunities are endless: from selling new ludicrously
luxurious goods (with equally ludicrous margins) to adjusting
advertising lingo (for example by acknowledging their purchasing
power and ignoring any talk of discounts), to setting up
exclusive media channels (non-cyclical rich magazines) on
a global scale, enabling other marketers to engage with
THE NON-CYCLICAL RICH
in trusted environments. >>
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Back to earth: when catering
to the rest of us, i.e. the less glamorous 'cyclical rich',
the 'cyclical poor' and the 'non-cyclical poor', TRENDWATCHING.COM
recommends infusing consumer advertising with a pinch of sympathy
that acknowledges the tougher times most consumers are currently
experiencing.
SYMPVERTISING
works well with both commodities and luxury services: the
latter can be promoted as small indulgences to ‘ease
the pain’ (see 'PROSPERITY GAP' in
our November
2002 newsletter), while commodities can appeal to a need
for savings and discounts. New York institution Gray’s
Papaya advertises with a ‘Recession Special’ (2
franks and 1 drink for $1.95) in its brightly coloured stores,
thereby nicely catering to the concerns of their customers.
>>
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Europeans who previously
favoured the Spanish Costas can now snap up ten-day package
deals to the Dominican Republic for EUR/USD 600, including
flight, accommodation and free food and drinks. Once-popular
hotels in Phuket are outdone by prettier, more exotic boutique
resorts on even remoter islands. In such a radically changing
market, many traditional resorts and hotels around the world
find themselves desperately seeking new customers.
How convenient therefore, that citizens of quickly developing
nations like China and Russia are now following in the footsteps
of millions of Germans and Brits who invented mass tourism
in the late sixties and early seventies.
Witness a true RESORT REBIRTH:
'forgotten' holiday destinations finding favour with new nations
of tourists. Up to 1 million Chinese may spend their holiday
in Thailand in 2003, often staying in low-cost hotels, while
in 2001, about 850,000 Russians spent their summer holidays
in Turkey and Spain.
As pointed out by 'GLOBAL GARAGE SALES' above, the ongoing
expansion of the world’s semi-middle classes offers
the chance of a second youth for many established services
and products in the industrialised world. >>
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NEWSLETTER
TRENDWATCHING.COM
ISSUE: 12 / 2002
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